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Assessing the comparative advantage of wheat pruduced in Albania
Kurzbeschreibung
The purpose of this study is to estimate the comparative advantage of wheat production, and to provide a policy framework for designing an effective agricultural policy in support of the market orientation of small farmers in Albania. The main findings and policy implications of this study can help guide the establishment of an agricultural policy and define appropriate roles for the public and private sectors in providing effective policies to wheat Albanian farmers.
The main sources of data for performing the detailed farm budget (production cost structure) and economic analysis were: (i) an expert survey; (ii) wheat budget compiled based on a farmer survey; (iii) data collected at market level; and (iv) secondary data collected by public and private institutions. The data used to estimate the comparative advantage of wheat came from a 2002-2003 survey of 120 farm-households (60 households per each district) in the Shkodra and Lushnja districts of Albania.
The analytical tools used in the study are the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM), domestic resource cost analysis and multiple regression techniques. The study investigates the current level of comparative advantage of Albanian wheat, its major determinants as well as the fluctuations in comparative advantage under various economic conditions of transformation and trade liberalization. The study shows that currently, Albania has a relative comparative advantage in wheat production and that import wheat price, exchange rate, import prices of fertilizers and domestic factor prices are key responsive factors affecting its comparative advantage. The sensitivity analyses of the wheat comparative advantage with respect to changes in a single factor under the condition of transformation and trade liberalization in Albania are first undertaken. The sensitivity analyses with respect to simultaneous changes in a number of affecting factors in the conditions of further economic and trade reforms as well as a multiple regression analysis were carried out. Finally, the main policy recommendations from the study are that much more diversified agricultural production should be considered and the information about the world wheat market in both demand and supply sides should be investigated more fully to reduce the losses for wheat farmers as well as for a country as whole.
Key Words: Comparative Advantage, Policy Analysis Matrix, Domestic Resource Cost Analysis, Wheat, Albania
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